Fantasy Baseball Primer

CC Sabathia saved the Brewers' season as well as your fantasy season. Is he worth it this time around?

It’s that time of year again.

With Spring Training in full swing, draft day is approaching fast — you know — when all the fans (we are NOT nerds!) take their charts and their highlighters and their pens and leave their mock drafts to gear up for the real deal. So being the winner of the previous league (a ten-man, head-to-head, competitive Yahoo league), allow me to offer a few suggestions:

General drafting strategy:

Average is good. Power is good. Speed is good. One-dimensional players are NOT good. This is why Adam Dunn and Dave Roberts are not high draft picks. They are purely one-dimensional. To avoid such players, I have developed my own system which I like to call the APS system (Average – Power – Speed).

Example: Ichiro Suzuki would be an AS player. Manny Ramirez would be an AP player (if he ever signs). David Wright, however, would be an APS player, the ideal player.

Get as many APS players as humanly possible. Why? If you are banking on Adam Dunn as your source of power and he breaks his right tibia in a freak roller-coaster mishap, you just lost your trophy. If you are relying on a balanced lineup to bring you equal numbers throughout, you can afford to lose one of them.

First pick candidates:

For those of you fortunate (or unfortunate, depending on how adept you are at decision-making) to have your league’s first pick, consider the following names:

David Wright – My first pick last year. Good for .300 average, 30 homers, 100 RBI and 15-20 steals (had 34 in 2007 but don’t expect that again).

Hanley Ramirez – Dubbed by many as the best player in the National League and only going to get better. Good for .300 average, 30 homers, 70-80 RBI, 40 steals.

Albert Pujols – What can I possibly say about him? Good for .300 average, 35-40 homers, 120 RBI, going to guess around eight steals this season.

Grady Sizemore – If he can get the average up to about .275-.280, he could be fantasy dynamite. Otherwise good for 30/80.

Ryan Braun – If Prince Fielder can rake the entire year, Braun will be that much more fearsome. I would honestly not rule out a .290/40/120 season from him with 15 steals. He could be the best one on the board.

Alex Rodriguez – You know the deal. Are the distractions worth it to you? Take a gamble.

Pitching:

DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT EVER take a pitcher with your first overall pick. The pitching market is deep enough that you can afford to wait four or five rounds before drafting your first pitcher. Of course if you have the tenth or worse pick in your league, you may want to bump that up a couple rounds (third). But if you have Ryan Braun and Mark Teixeira anchoring your lineup after two rounds, it’s pretty clear you’re building an offensive surplus. Go for John Lackey in the fifth or sixth round. If you have a bottom of the barrell pick and have Jose Reyes and Magglio Ordonez, Roy Halladay in the third.

Steal players out of later rounds:

I was in a mock draft the other day. It was the 11th round and I stumbled upon a name that shocked the hell out of me — Daisuke Matsuzaka. I grabbed him immediately. Round later I saw Jon Lester (my prediction to win the AL Cy Young). Snapped him up too. Then I saw Scott Kazmir. Point is, you can afford to wait a while before building your pitching staff. This year, offense will dominate the early rounds. When people start to panic and pick up Johan Santana and CC Sabathia in the second round, they get into trouble. Get your pitchers late.

Some key offensive players can also be found on the back-burner. Corey Hart, for example, is a favorite of mine this year. For those of you Dodger fans, Matt Kemp with a little less speed, a little more power and a lot less strikeouts. For everyone else, 30/30 potential. Save a spot in your outfield for him.

Mike Aviles is another player I’ve had my eye on as well. Yahoo lists him as a 2B/SS, ESPN as only a 2B. Check out the listings before you pick him, but with a weak middle infield market (I’ll get to that later), he could be very valuable. 30/30 potential as well, but realistically, look for 20/20 this season.

Chris Davis (1B/3B) can also provide you with 30-homerun power.

Weak markets:

No Wall Street references here. Sorry. Third base and middle infield. They’re weak. You have a few options here:

1. Shore them up early – Hanley Ramirez, Aramis Ramirez, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Reyes, Ian Kinsler, Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez, Chipper Jones. They’re all justifiable picks within the first few rounds. The rest of the market is deep enough that you can afford to take one early.

2. Take a gamble – Rafael Furcal, Orlando Hudson, Ryan Zimmerman. All coming off injury but all have big-game potential.

3. Know your sleepers – Mike Aviles, Chris Davis, etc. Pablo Sandoval of the Giants is another one. Expect him to contend for Rookie of the Year honors.

4. Slop it – Edgar Renteria and Casey Blake won’t do much, but they will put up SOMETHING at the least.

Catchers and relievers:

Never draft either before round ten. Even then it may be too early. I realize that if someone makes the brilliant move of taking Brad Lidge or Brian McCann in the fifth, it may mess with your strategy, but stay true to your plan and hold off. The Matt Lindstroms, Jonathan Broxtons, Dioner Navarros and Mike Napolis of the league will still be there by the time you’re ready.

You also might want to find out who actually has the starting job in Texas before you draft anybody named Saltalamacchia, Teagarden or Ramirez.

STAY AWAY FROM:

Yes, I’m talking to you who took Andruw Jones last year and Barry Zito the year before. Here’s the new list of busts:

Matt Holliday – Home/road splits away from Coors Field were poor to begin with. Oakland and its spacious capacity will eat him alive. Plus, he has no protection in Oakland. He at least had Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins and Todd Helton in Denver.

CC Sabathia – Yeah, I said it. The golden boy. The iron man. The savior. Yankee Stadium is a band box, the AL East has exponentially tougher offensive opponents and he worked harder last year than any previous year. Does not bode well for a repeat season.

Johan Santana – Something seems up with him and it’s nothing I like. I don’t fully trust his health just yet.

Manny Ramirez – He might not even sign by Opening Day and even when he does, can’t guarantee he will be a happy Manny. You know how that went over in Boston.